CA-27: Rep. Garcia Trails in Early Poll: Impact Research, polling for the George Whitesides campaign, released the results of their mid-April poll (4/12-18; 650 CA-27 registered voters; 100 over-sample of Hispanic voters) that finds their client leading three-term California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 47-44% count. In the jungle primary, however, Rep. Garcia topped Mr. Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff and ex-CEO for Virgin Atlantic Airlines, 55-33%, from a turnout of 135,161 primary voters.
This will clearly be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Rep. Garcia represents one of four California Republican held districts that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as a Democratic seat. In this instance, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission made the northern Los Angeles County district even more Democratic, stretching the seat to a D+8 rating. President Biden carried this district configuration with a 55-43% victory margin, so Rep. Garcia has his work cut out for him to win here again in November. Louisiana: Judges Order New Cong Map by June 3: The three judge federal panel that invalidated the new Louisiana congressional map is now sending the plan back to the state legislature with a deadline of June 3rd to redraw the map. This time, there is no judicial requirement to specifically add a new majority minority district. In response, Secretary of State Nancy Landry (R) is filing an appeal of the original ruling with the US Supreme Court and criticized the panel for not adhering to her May 15th deadline for producing a 2024 map. She said the state needs such a time frame to adequately administer the election. While the Louisiana redistricting situation will soon come to a head, it is difficult to see exactly how the map’s final version will develop. VA-5: Rep. Good Well Behind in New Primary Poll: A just released Battleground Connect poll (4/30-5/2; 504 VA-5 likely voters; live interview) finds two-term Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) falling well behind his Republican primary challenger, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot). According to the survey data, Sen. McGuire would lead Congressman Good by a double digit margin, 45-31%, as the two battle for position in anticipation of the June 18th Old Dominion primary. The McGuire effort, which has been principally hitting Rep. Good over his lack of support for former President Donald Trump, is being supplemented by heavy outside spending much of which is coming from organizations affiliated with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who Rep. Good was instrumental in deposing. Additionally, this is the first time Rep. Good has faced a primary election. Previously, he was nominated through a district convention, which is the way he denied former Rep. Denver Riggleman renomination in 2020. West Virginia: Justice Crushing Mooney in Latest GOP Poll: With a week to go before the May 14th West Virginia primary, Research America conducted another GOP US Senate survey (4/24-5/1; 407 WV likely Republican primary voters; live interview & online) and publicly released the results. The data finds Gov. Jim Justice leading US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) by a huge 67-23% tally. Gov. Justice is expected to win the Republican nomination next week and the Senate seat in November.
West Virginia: Polling Tight as Primary Nears: As the West Virginia open gubernatorial candidates head into the last week of campaigning before the primary election next Tuesday, a new Emerson College survey (5/2-5; 558 WV likely Republican primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) continues to see Attorney General Patrick Morrisey leading the GOP primary race, but his edge is narrowing as the whole field is becoming bunched.
The Emerson results reveal a 33-29-21-15% split among AG Morrisey, former state Delegate Moore Capito, businessman Chris Miller, and Secretary of State Mac Warner, respectively. Next’s week primary winner will become the prohibitive favorite to succeed Gov. Jim Justice (R) who will likely be nominated for the US Senate in the same election. The erratic polling in the past few weeks in this race suggests we could be headed for a very close final result on election night. President: Biden and Trump Easily Win: Since the presidential contest is effectively over, it was with little surprise that President Biden and former President Trump easily won their respective primaries. Turnout heavily favored Republicans, as the GOP participation total outpaced the Democrats by almost 400,000 voters. Of the 35 states holding primaries or definable caucus votes, Republican have seen more voters cast ballots than Democrats in 26 domains. Of those voting in the Hoosier State, 76.6% of the individuals chose the Republican primary.
Senate: Psychologist Valerie McCray to Oppose Jim Banks: Psychologist Valerie McCray easily won the Democratic Senate primary with a 67-33% victory over former state Rep. Marc Carmichael. Ms. McCray will now challenge US Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City) who was unopposed for the open Republican nomination. Rep. Banks begins this race as the prohibitive favorite to hold the open Senate seat for the GOP. Unopposed for the Democratic nomination was Jennifer McCormick, the former state Superintendent of Public Instruction and an ex-Republican. IN-3: Ex-Rep. Marlin Stutzman to Return: While 3rd District incumbent Jim Banks has an easy run for the Senate, the Republican primary to replace him in the House evolved into a highly competitive political battle. The winner is still not formally declared, but it appears that former Rep. Marlin Stutzman (R) will claim the nomination with just 24% of the vote. At this writing, 82% of the ballots have been counted and it is doubtful that the finishing order will change. Following Mr. Stutzman are businessman Tim Smith with 22.2% support, former circuit judge Wendy Davis at 19.3%, and state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington) who posts a close 16.9% preference factor. With the FiveThirtyEight data organization rating IN-3 as R+34, there is little doubt that Mr. Stutzman will win the general election and return to the House after leaving Congress at the beginning of 2017. In 2016, Mr. Stutzman ran for the Senate but failed to overcome then-US Rep. Todd Young in the Republican primary who would then go onto win the open seat in 2016 and re-election in 2022. IN-5: Rep. Victoria Spartz Wins a Plurality Renomination: The Indiana House incumbent facing the most competitive challenge was Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) who originally announced her retirement only to change her mind before filing time. Despite attracting just 39% of the vote, she wins the plurality primary, which should be enough political insurance to easily carry the general election in this central Indiana district at the beginning of November. The Congresswoman’s closest finisher is state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville) whose 33% support figure was unsurprisingly not strong enough to topple the incumbent. None of the other seven GOP candidates even reached the 10% mark. The new Democratic nominee is educator Deborah Pickett who won her party’s nomination with 59% of the vote. With a FiveThirtyEight data organization of R+22, Rep. Spartz will have little trouble winning a third term later this year. IN-6: Ex-City Councilman Jefferson Shreve Takes GOP Primary: Three-term Rep. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) is retiring, and the Republican nomination battle in this district became fierce. The winner is former Indianapolis City Councilman Jefferson Shreve, who was both the campaign’s biggest fundraiser, and the subject of the most negative attacks. Mr. Shreve self-financed $4.5 million of his campaign effort, which was enough to secure a 29-22-21% victory over state Rep. Mike Speedy (R-Indianapolis) and businessman Jamison Carrier. IN-6 is the safest Republican seat in the state, so Mr. Shreve will have little trouble holding the district in the GOP column come the November election. IN-8: Hostettler Comeback Thwarted: Seven-term Rep. Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) is the third member of the Hoosier State US House delegation not to seek re-election. Like in the 3rd District, a former Congressman, John Hostettler who represented the seat from 1995-2007, was attempting a political comeback. The result did not turn out as well for Mr. Hostettler as for Mr. Stutzman. The winner of the 8th District Republican primary is state Senator Mark Messmer (R-Jasper) who appeared to be the leading candidate from the outset. He topped Mr. Hostettler with a 39-19% victory margin. None of the other six candidates reached the 16% mark. Sen. Messmer now becomes the prohibitive favorite to succeed Rep. Bucshon in the November election. WA-4: Rep. Newhouse Announces Re-Election Bid: Dispelling retirement speculation, Washington US Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside), one of two remaining Republican House members to vote for the Trump impeachment, the Congressman announced that he will seek re-election. Retirement conjecture grew when 2022 US Senate candidate Tiffany Smiley (R) jumped into the race earlier this week.
Additionally, before Ms. Smiley announced her candidacy, former President Trump endorsed race car driver Jerrod Sessler (R) who, at the time, was Rep. Newhouse’s only declared opponent. Washington employs the top two jungle primary system, so it is possible that both Rep. Newhouse and Ms. Smiley could advance to the general election. This will become a hot August 6th Republican primary. Indiana: Sen. Mike Braun Wins GOP Gov Primary: As expected, Indiana US Sen. Mike Braun won the state’s open Republican gubernatorial primary and now will be the clear favorite to replace term-limited Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) in November.
Sen. Braun defeated Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, and businessmen Brad Chambers and Eric Doden by a 39-22-18-12% count. Though the Senator’s primary win was unimpressive for a sitting statewide incumbent, clinching the party nomination makes Mr. Braun the prohibitive favorite to succeed Gov. Holcomb in November. CA-20: SoS Drops Appeal to Fong Ballot Status: California Secretary of State Shirley Weber (D) announced that she is dropping her office’s appeal of the ruling that allows Assemblyman Vince Fong (R-Bakersfield) to run for the open 20th District congressional seat while still on the ballot for state Assembly. Ms. Weber contended that a candidate cannot seek two offices simultaneously. Two court rulings, however, allowed Mr. Fong to continue his regular election campaign for the seat from which former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R) resigned even after qualifying for the state Assembly ballot. Ms. Weber’s action means that Mr. Fong’s congressional candidacy is finally unimpeded.
Assemblyman Fong did appear on the ballot for both offices on the March 5th jungle primary. He placed first in the congressional race and was unopposed for re-election to his current office. He is also on the ballot for the May 21st special congressional election to fill Mr. McCarthy’s unexpired term. In both the special election and in November, Mr. Fong will face Tulare County Sheriff Mike Boudreaux in a double-Republican format. Should Fong win the special election, and he is favored to do so, he will resign from the Assembly before taking the congressional oath. At that point, Gov. Gavin Newsom (D) will call a special election to fill the balance of the unexpired Assembly term and another for the regular election. Indiana: Primary Today: Indiana voters cast their primary ballots today, and while the presidential election nomination process is locked for both parties, several key US House races will be effectively decided. The incumbent facing the most competitive challenge today is Rep. Victoria Spartz (R-Noblesville) who originally announced her retirement only to change her mind before filing time. While eight Republican challengers are opposing the incumbent, the race is really between Rep. Spartz and state Rep. Chuck Goodrich (R-Noblesville). The crowded field likely helps Rep. Spartz, but polling suggests a close finish. The state features three Republican open seats, and GOP nominees who will be heavy favorites in the general election will be chosen today. Reps. Greg Pence (R-Columbus) and Larry Bucshon (R-Evansville) are retiring, and the Republican winners this evening will be locks to win in November. Rep. Jim Banks (R-Columbia City), who is running unopposed for the party nomination in the US Senate race, leaves a field of eight Republican candidates vying to be his successor. The contest is winnowing to three candidates: former circuit judge Wendy Davis, former Congressman Marlin Stutzman, and state Sen. Andy Zay (R-Huntington). WA-4: Senate Finalist Announces for House: There has been growing speculation that Washington Rep. Dan Newhouse (R-Sunnyside), ono of two remaining Republican House members to vote for the Trump impeachment, would announce his retirement before the state’s May 24th candidate filing deadline and the latest development here will increase such talk. Tiffany Smiley (R), who was a credible opponent to Sen. Patty Murray (D) in the 2022 statewide election, yesterday announced that she will enter the 4th District House race. The move is unusual since it seems unlikely that she would challenge the incumbent especially when former President Trump has already endorsed former race car driver Jerrod Sessler (R). Her candidacy does make sense, however, if Rep. Newhouse has decided not to seek re-election and has quietly told her such. This is a developing situation worth watching. Indiana: Sen. Mike Braun Likely to Win GOP Gov Primary: Indiana is one of 11 states featuring Governors’ campaigns this year, and eight are open seat contests. US Sen. Mike Braun (R) is foregoing a re-election bid to attempt to succeed Gov. Eric Holcomb (R) who is ineligible to seek a third term.
Sen. Braun looks to be well positioned to win a plurality primary victory over Lt. Gov. Suzanne Crouch, and businessmen Eric Doden and Brad Chambers. The Republican nominee then becomes a heavy favorite in the general election against consensus Democratic candidate Jennifer McCormick, the former state Superintendent of Public Instruction and an ex-Republican. NJ-10: Special Election Scheduled: Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has called a special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) who passed away on April 24th. The special primary will be held on July 16th, with the special general on September 18th. The winner will take the seat in late September and then be on the ballot for the regular term on November 5th.
Because Rep. Payne passed away after the candidate filing deadline, the local Democratic Party organizations will choose a replacement nominee after the July 16th special primary. It is presumed the delegates will choose the special primary winner. Republican Carmen Bucco and Green Party candidate Jon Serrano, along with Congressman Payne, were the only candidates to file at the March 25th filing deadline. The Democrats will easily retain the Newark anchored 10th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+58, and President Biden scored an 81-19% victory here in 2020. Now that Gov. Murphy has scheduled the special election, candidates will soon come forward. TX-12: An Inconsistent Coalition: While the Republican Party’s more conservative wing looks to be lining up behind real estate developer John O’Shea in the GOP runoff for the party nomination to succeed retiring Rep. Kay Granger (R-Ft. Worth), state Rep. Craig Goldman (R-Ft. Worth) launched a new ad proving that O’Shea is not even a consistent Republican voter. The ad contains a video clip of O’Shea saying, “I am not a conservative,” and points out that he did not vote in the 2016, 2018, and 2020 elections. Conversely, Mr. Goldman brandishes his endorsements from Gov. Greg Abbott (R), Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick (R), and the National Rifle Association. The March 5th primary ended with Mr. Goldman capturing first place with 44.4% of the vote as compared to Mr. O’Shea’s 26.4%. The May 28th runoff was forced because none of the four competing Republican candidates reached the majority support mark. The runoff winner will be a lock to win the seat in November. TX-28: Rep. Cuellar Indicted: On Friday, ten-term Texas US Rep. Henry Cuellar (D-Laredo) and his wife were indicted on federal bribery charges, but the Congressman says he is innocent and will not leave his re-election race. After two consecutive close call renomination campaigns in 2020 and 2022, Rep. Cuellar was unopposed in this year’s Democratic primary. The Republican side ended in a runoff between retired Navy officer Jay Furman and rancher Lazaro Garza that will be decided on May 28th. Neither man was expected to mount a major challenge in the general election, but the Congressman’s legal situation could change the situation. Texas’ 28th District begins in southeast San Antonio and moves all the way to the Mexican border through nine counties. In addition to part of San Antonio, the district houses the Laredo, Rio Bravo, and Rio Grande City communities. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates TX-28 as D+7. President Biden carried the district by a 52-46% margin. After a very tight 2022 Democratic primary and runoff, Rep. Cuellar won a comfortable 57-43% general election victory. West Virginia: Morrisey Reassumes Polling Lead: Two weeks ago, when a poll for the first time showed former state Delegate Moore Capito (R), son of Sen. Shelley Moore Capito (R), leading Attorney General Patrick Morrisey in the open race for Governor we expected a counter poll to soon surface. Such is the case.
During the April 20-22 period, NMB Research released survey results revealing a Capito GOP primary lead of 31-29% over AG Morrisey with businessman Chris Miller, son of US Rep. Carol Miller (R-Huntington), and Secretary of State Mac Warner trailing with 14 and 13%, respectively. The counter poll was released late last week. Research America (4/24-5/1; 407 WV likely Republican primary voters; live interview & online) sees Mr. Morrisey returning to the lead with 32%, while Messrs. Miller and Moore follow with 25 and 24%, respectively. Secretary of State Warner drops back with 10% support. Since polling for this race was first published in February of 2023, ten surveys have been released. Mr. Morrisey has led in nine. The West Virginia primary is scheduled for May 14th. The Republican nominee will almost certainly succeed term-limited Gov. Jim Justice (R). |
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