Vermont: Gov. Scott Announces: Incumbent Gov. Phil Scott, the one Republican who has found the key to winning statewide elections in Vermont, formally announced that he will run for a fifth consecutive term this year. Vermont and New Hampshire are the only two states to limit their Governors to two-year terms.
While Gov. Scott has a high favorability index and already appears headed for re-election, he is likely to face a comeback challenge from former Governor and 2004 presidential candidate Howard Dean. The latter man last won the Governor’s office in 2002 but held the position for seven consecutive two-year terms. Florida: Sen. Scott Expands Lead: Cherry Communications was in the field testing several Florida races for the state Chamber of Commerce (4/28-5/7; 609 FL likely general election voters; live interview) and despite claims from Democratic Senate candidate Debbie Mucarsel Powell in fundraising messages that her race is even, this poll confirms otherwise. In reality, Sen. Rick Scott (R) has a major advantage over the likely Democratic nominee. According to the Cherry/Chamber poll, Sen. Scott commands a 54-39% lead.
The Scott performance is even larger than former President Donald Trump’s showing in the same poll. On the presidential ballot test, Mr. Trump holds a 51-42% edge over President Biden. Additionally, when Sen. Scott was last on the ballot in 2018 and won by just over 10,000 votes statewide, the Democrats had a voter registration edge. Now, the Republican registration advantage has soared to over 900,000 individuals. Nevada: No Redistricting Ballot Propositions: On Friday, the Nevada state Supreme Court upheld a lower court ruling striking down two proposed ballot initiatives that would have allowed citizens to determine if a redistricting commission would be created. The court ruled that the propositions did not include provisions to demonstrate how the initiative would develop a revenue stream to pay for the program as required in Nevada law.
Therefore, no redistricting law changes will be on the ballot in 2024. Also under Nevada election law, in order to become law, propositions must receive majority support in two separate elections. Therefore, time remains for proponents to qualify a pair of propositions in future elections to change the redistricting system before the 2030 census. NY-3: GOP Candidates Disqualified: Four Republican candidates attempting to challenge returning New York US Rep. Tom Suozzi (D-Glen Cove) have been disqualified. This leaves former state Assemblyman Mike LiPetri, the local party endorsed candidate, as the lone Republican contender. None of the others submitted the proper number of valid petition signatures, which is the typical reason candidates fail to make the ballot. Mr. LiPetri has yet to initiate a fundraising mechanism for his campaign, but now he will be unopposed for the party nomination in the June 25th Republican primary. Though expelled Rep. George Santos (R) won the seat in 2022, the district leans Democratic. The Dave’s Redistricting App statisticians calculate a 51.9D – 47.4R partisan lean for the new district adjusted in the 2024 redistricting round. NY-3 was one of four Democratic districts that went Republican for the US House in 2022 which, along with a similar four seats in California, will go a long way to determining whether Democrats or Republicans claim the majority in the 2024 general election. Washington: The Three Bob Fergusons: Evergreen State Attorney General Bob Ferguson (D) is the leading candidate to replace retiring Gov. Jay Inslee (D), but he has a new problem as we move closer to the May 24th candidate filing deadline. Two other Democrats, also named Bob Ferguson, are in the process of filing. Attorney General Ferguson is appealing to the Secretary of State for help. There is an oddity that will be investigated. The new Bob Fergusons are registering at the same address, and one person, Glen Morgan, says he is the campaign manager for both of the challenging Fergusons.
The Washington gubernatorial ballot will be confusing enough without featuring three Bob Fergusons. The state uses the jungle primary system, meaning all candidates are on the same ballot. At this point, 30 individuals, including a dozen Democrats, eight Republicans, eight Independents, one Green, and one Libertarian, have drawn documents to file for Governor. So, in such a crowded field, so many Bob Fergusons could cause the Attorney General additional confusion problems. Maryland: Shock Poll Just Released: A surprising poll was just released from Emerson College (5/6-8; 1,115 MD registered voters; 462 MD likely Democratic primary voters; multiple sampling techniques) that sees Prince George’s County Executive Angela Alsobrooks for the first time moving slightly ahead of US Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac). The results yield a 42-41% count despite Ms. Alsobrooks being outspent by an almost 10:1 ratio. This data clearly suggests that the upcoming May 14th Democratic primary election will yield an interesting night.
The general election data is surprising, too. After several earlier polls projected former Republican Gov. Larry Hogan (R) holding leads over his Democratic opponents, this survey posts both Alsobrooks and Trone to nine (46-37%) and ten point (48-38%) respective leads over the ex-state chief executive. KY-4: AIPAC’s Early Attack Strategy: The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) announced that they are launching an ad blitz against Kentucky US Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Garrison) even though he has little competition in the May 21st Republican primary and has no Democratic opposition for November. The ads will attack him for his record pertaining to Israel support.
AIPAC’s goal is to weaken him within the Republican primary voter base in order to either dissuade him from running for the Senate when Mitch McConnell’s seat comes open in 2026 or make him less of a factor if he does launch a statewide candidacy. MD-6: Dueling Polls: A new publicly released survey posts former Commerce Department official April McClain Delaney (D) leading the large field of 13 Democratic candidates vying to succeed Rep. David Trone (D-Potomac) who is running for the Senate. The primary election is this Tuesday. The Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group conducted the survey for the Delaney campaign. The poll (5/6-7; 400 MD-6 likely Democratic primary voters; live interview) finds Ms. Delaney topping state Delegate Joe Vogel (D-Montgomery County) by a 37-24% margin. The pollsters indicate that the remaining 11 candidates combined only posted a cumulative 17% support factor. There is a wide discrepancy in the polls, however. Recently, Mr. Vogel released a Public Policy Polling survey (4/25-26; 588 MD-6 likely voters; live interview & text) that showed both he and McClain Delaney at 24 percent. While the data results are very different, it is clear that the primary contest has winnowed to a two-way race. NJ-10: Special Scheduled; Candidates Come Forth: Gov. Phil Murphy (D) has called a special election to replace the late Rep. Donald Payne, Jr. (D-Newark) who passed away on April 24th. The special primary will be held on July 16th, with the special general on September 18th. The winner will take the seat in late September and then be on the ballot for the regular term on November 5th. Because Rep. Payne passed away after the candidate filing deadline, the local Democratic Party organizations will choose a replacement nominee after the July 16th special primary for the regular term. It is presumed the delegates will choose the special primary winner, and Newark City Council President LaMonica McIver (D) appears to be the candidate consolidating the earliest support. Also expressing interest in running for the party nomination are Hudson County Commissioner Jerry Walker, Linden Mayor Derek Armstead, East Orange City Councilwoman Brittany Claybrooks, and NJ state official David Godfrey. Republican Carmen Bucco and Green Party candidate Jon Serrano, along with Congressman Payne, were the only candidates to file at the March 25th filing deadline. The Democrats will easily retain the Newark anchored 10th District. The FiveThirtyEight data organization rates the seat as D+58, and President Biden scored an 81-19% victory here in 2020. CA-27: Rep. Garcia Trails in Early Poll: Impact Research, polling for the George Whitesides campaign, released the results of their mid-April poll (4/12-18; 650 CA-27 registered voters; 100 over-sample of Hispanic voters) that finds their client leading three-term California US Rep. Mike Garcia (R-Santa Clarita) by a 47-44% count. In the jungle primary, however, Rep. Garcia topped Mr. Whitesides, a former NASA chief of staff and ex-CEO for Virgin Atlantic Airlines, 55-33%, from a turnout of 135,161 primary voters.
This will clearly be one of the top national congressional campaigns. Rep. Garcia represents one of four California Republican held districts that the FiveThirtyEight data organization rates as a Democratic seat. In this instance, the California Citizens Redistricting Commission made the northern Los Angeles County district even more Democratic, stretching the seat to a D+8 rating. President Biden carried this district configuration with a 55-43% victory margin, so Rep. Garcia has his work cut out for him to win here again in November. Louisiana: Judges Order New Cong Map by June 3: The three judge federal panel that invalidated the new Louisiana congressional map is now sending the plan back to the state legislature with a deadline of June 3rd to redraw the map. This time, there is no judicial requirement to specifically add a new majority minority district. In response, Secretary of State Nancy Landry (R) is filing an appeal of the original ruling with the US Supreme Court and criticized the panel for not adhering to her May 15th deadline for producing a 2024 map. She said the state needs such a time frame to adequately administer the election. While the Louisiana redistricting situation will soon come to a head, it is difficult to see exactly how the map’s final version will develop. VA-5: Rep. Good Well Behind in New Primary Poll: A just released Battleground Connect poll (4/30-5/2; 504 VA-5 likely voters; live interview) finds two-term Virginia US Rep. Bob Good (R-Lynchburg) falling well behind his Republican primary challenger, state Sen. John McGuire (R-Manakin-Sabot). According to the survey data, Sen. McGuire would lead Congressman Good by a double digit margin, 45-31%, as the two battle for position in anticipation of the June 18th Old Dominion primary. The McGuire effort, which has been principally hitting Rep. Good over his lack of support for former President Donald Trump, is being supplemented by heavy outside spending much of which is coming from organizations affiliated with former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, who Rep. Good was instrumental in deposing. Additionally, this is the first time Rep. Good has faced a primary election. Previously, he was nominated through a district convention, which is the way he denied former Rep. Denver Riggleman renomination in 2020. West Virginia: Justice Crushing Mooney in Latest GOP Poll: With a week to go before the May 14th West Virginia primary, Research America conducted another GOP US Senate survey (4/24-5/1; 407 WV likely Republican primary voters; live interview & online) and publicly released the results. The data finds Gov. Jim Justice leading US Rep. Alex Mooney (R-Charles Town) by a huge 67-23% tally. Gov. Justice is expected to win the Republican nomination next week and the Senate seat in November.
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